Modelling for soccer scores

In Dixon, Coles (1997), they have used the maximum likelihood estimation for the two modified independent Poisson models in (4.3) to model the scores in soccer.

I am trying to use R in order to “reproduce” the alpha and beta as well as the home effect parameters (pg. 274, Table 4) without using any packages (using the usual independent Poisson models are fine too). I have tried using bivpois package but I am not sure on how to modify its parameters.

I would greatly appreciate it if anyone can help me with the R code to model the data – Scores from the home and away team for Season 2012/13 in English Premier League.


The paper you are reading is implicitly using αi and βi to refer to the attack and defense parameters as described by Maher (1982).

The main difference is that Maher uses four parameters for each team (home attack, home defense, away attack and away defense) while Dixon and Coles use attack and defense parameters and another parameter to represent home advantage.

Source : Link , Question Author : SooBin , Answer Author : Nick Cox

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